​     They have been advertising this fight like crazy, as they should. This is a rematch and the first bout was really good, several knockdowns with epic recoveries ending in a split draw. A freakin split draw! Assuming boxing is not fixed like many will swear to, a match doesn't get any closer. I'm actually excited for the fight. The boxers? Not so much. I like both Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury, they have great personalities for boxers and they are evenly matched but neither of them instills fear in me for their opponents. Remember when Iron Mike Tyson had a match coming up and it wasn't a question of if he would win but rather how quickly and how thoroughly he was going to dismantle his opponent? 
     I just don't trust Deontay Wilder. I don't trust Tyson Fury (is that his real name?). I don't trust the guy who allegedly holds three of the belts, Anthony Joshua. None of these guys are really all that exciting, which is a problem that has plagued boxing quite a bit recently. It seems to me that any of the current top twenty heavyweight boxers can be beat by any of the others on a good night.
     I get the feeling sometimes, watching a fighter like Wilder, that a brawler who could take punches like Holyfield would tear him up. Watch Holyfield vs. Qawi or Mercer. These guys punished one another with a level of skill that seems to be lacking lately. The reason I began to make these comparisons was Wilder's own ridiculous claim to be the hardest puncher in history, but any long-time boxing observer knows that just can't be. For one, Foreman hit harder at 40 years old than Wilder does now. Sure, Wilder has won 41 of 42 fights by KO and has yet to lose. Sounds great right? Tomato cans (that's an old-timey boxing term like "bums"). Some of those opponents were decent enough fighters but no one is conflating the current slate of heavyweight boxing challengers with anything resembling a golden era for the sport. Back to when Tyson was fighting a Holyfield, I believed Holyfield had the ability to injure Tyson as well (Tyson was a little past his prime by then but remained a dangerous pugilist). I doubt that Wilder has had a similar level of concern looking at his opponents.
     So, who wins this this thing? I feel like Wilder has a slight psychological edge. Fury just weighed in at his heaviest ever for a bout. I'd like Fury to pull it off just to check Wilder's ego. It irks me when guys make ridiculous claims like he has, similar to LaVar Ball claiming he could beat Jordan one-on-one. Fucking preposterous. But if I had money on it I'd have to make a bet on Wilder. A very small bet because I just don't trust him.

​     There are about five games left before conference tourneys. Did I mention we were witnessing a great college basketball season? I realize that I overstated when I used the term parity but what to make of all the upsets and volatility in rankings. Since we last talked Louisville, still at #5 before new polling, drops to another unranked team, this time Clemson. More ranked teams getting beat by schools downline; #10 Seton Hall loses to Providence, #11 Auburn falls to Missouri, #19 Butler loses to Georgetown, #20 Houston goes down by a point to SMU, #22 Illinois trounced by Rutgers, #24 Texas Tech beat by Oklahoma State and #25 LSU drops to Alabama. That's seven unranked teams taking down ranked schools. And that was only Saturday's games!
     I can't wait for tourney time to see the carnage that's left after the first weekend. A lot of guys that get paid much more than myself (I make nothing from this in case you were wondering) seem to think the four topline schools are clearly separated in quality from #5-25 but I'm not convinced. San Diego State hasn't played a single ranked team. Baylor has had an incredible season and have actually been pretty good over the last decade but have never even sniffed a Championship and that kind of pressure can do terrible things to the minds of nineteen year-olds during a deep tournament run, just ask Gonzaga. Who by the way, have been tested early and had much success but it's tough to believe the hype with such a squishy mid-major schedule. It's hard for me to say that because I love underdogs and watching mid-major or even minor conference schools advance, when they manage to. That leaves Kansas, the one blue-blood currently near the top. They're solid, but they are 3-3 against ranked schools, which equates to very beatable by goods teams.
     These squads are all vulnerable so if you're looking for an easy pick this year, there isn't one. The middle of the rankings are littered with schools that can play deep into March, the Big Ten is eating itself alive with talented teams, and North Carolina won't be getting in anyone's way this time around. How the mighty have fallen. Now if only we can have a first-time champion this year that would be cool.

     The Madness started on Tuesday November 5th, 2019. I don't know how it happened or why but parity struck men's college basketball this year. You have to take pre-season rankings with a grain of salt of course but the prognosticators got much wrong this time around. I can't blame them, predictions are impossibly complex. I like it though, it makes my own wild predictions seem not so ridiculous. Keep this in mind when I advise you on your bracket in a few weeks. Hey we're all wrong and that's okay, this is why they play the games. 
     Let's start with what's fresh in my mind. Just recently on Saturday February 8th, I watched a good Duke team that started the season ranked #2, currently #7, barely, and I mean got real lucky (there is luck in sports, ask Eli Manning) in beating the worst UNC team in decades. But it took double overtime. Now I know a lot of people have the attitude that you should count a win a win, but if you have aspirations of going deep into March and you narrowly squeak by a very average team it speaks volumes about your weaknesses. It says you're beatable and not just by highly ranked teams with sparkling records. It says you're vulnerable and a one or two point game could always go the other way with just one more possession. 
     A #16 seed finally ousted a #1 seed in the last dance and it's only gotten worse this year. The #1 ranking looked like a turnstile until Gonzaga and Baylor got into the meat of weak conference schedules and seem to be locked comfortably in at #1 and #2. They could swap positions and no one would bat an eye. Also, any one of teams #3 through #25 could beat either of them so good luck with those brackets this year. Your grandma's gonna have a better bracket. She saw one college game this year and she thought it was the Bucks vs. the Wizards.
     As if to make my point, I am watching a scrappy Alabama at 13-10, on the road, push a really good two-loss Auburn team to overtime. I mentioned UNC, who have reached the title game twice in the last four years. Well, coach got drunk and the car is now off in a tobacco road ditch, burning down. They are well below .500 and are behind the likes of cross-state rivals (rivals? not) UNC Greensboro and Northern Colorado in BPI. The ACC currently has only three ranked teams while the Big Ten is looking as though they will have 11 schools make the tournament. Yes, more schools than are even in the conference (not actually but that's another story).
     Every night gives us great games. Kentucky lost to Evansville (where?). Duke lost to Stephen F. Austin (Who?). I can't even begin to go down the list of close games and upsets between teams that are very closely matched or just as often, not close, in record, talent or perception. The rankings have an element of perception of course because for all the data and evidence we're still just guessing at who we think is better, until the day they play each other and we find out. 
     We have Dayton, San Diego State and Gonzaga, all mid-major programs, high in the rankings while perennial powerhouses like Kentucky are clinging to the bottom of the top 25. Anyone who tells you they saw Baylor doing what they've done is not being honest with you. They have been really good this year, sitting at 21-1. Their one loss? Not even remotely ranked Washington. A bad Washington team that also narrowly lost to Gonzaga and beat a USC team that had only 2 losses at the time. Anyone can be beat on a given night this season and it's going to make 2020 a really fun tournament to watch. We're going to see some great games that's guaranteed. I'll be here to help you pick 'em.
     Oh, so 11-13 Georgia Tech just beat #5 Louisville. What a season.

      I am writing this just after Wednesday's play-in games, prior to Thursday's 64 team tip-off but you may not read it until Friday. Which is all fine and well because you'll see that when I tell you not to expect much from your bracket, it will make perfect sense. Predicting winners is not rocket science, but it isn't science either. When the sample size is large enough it becomes clear that a good team like the Golden State Warriors will beat a poor team like the Lakers. Until they don't. The Lakers managed to beat the Warriors on March 7th for an epic upset, however, it's unlikely that they would win again were they to play four or five more games. While the chances are high a good team will prevail over a lower quality team we still have to play the game just to be sure. In the Warriors and Lakers we know what we are getting, they have played sixty-plus games each and several against one another. 
     
     The Tournament on the other hand often matches up teams that may have never opposed one another. This is why so-called experts like Ken Pomeroy lean so heavily on an index that attempts to make sense of strength of schedule, trying to filter through common opponents and opponent's opponents to determine real contenders from field-fill. The problem for you is that usually a #12 seed beats a #5 and often we get a #13 over a #4, or even a #14 over #3, and someday a #16 over a #1 (just not this year). Now, you can't pick all four 12 seeds just to say "I called the upset". Chances are good that it will happen, but which #12 seed? After a quick perusal of this years bracket four loss Little Rock stands out as a possible giant killer but they did not play a single ranked team this season. There is no reliable way to know how they will perform against a tested but not great major conference Purdue squad. Were UALR to beat Purdue, some ninety percent of brackets will have an early crack in them. Just below this match-up in the Midwest region is #4 Iowa State versus a seasoned #13 Iona, and #6 Seton Hall against perennial deep-run threat #11 Gonzaga and we start to get an idea of what a proverbial minefield the bracket is.
     
     By the time the second round is set your bracket is Swiss cheese. The only reason to keep checking it from there on out is you will undoubtedly have all four #1's still in the hunt as well as most #2's and #3's. you'll still have a good shot at having the future national champion in the mix. I love the big upsets in this format though, because #14 seeds do not blow out #3's, they just don't. When they get the occasional win it's a GAME. The kind that makes college basketball so damn compelling to watch, when leads vacillate and buzzer-beaters push contests into overtime. It could be two teams we haven't had an opportunity to watch in the year but in this win or go home atmosphere every game is important, and since we chose one or the other to prove us as sports-idiot-savants we are invested in the outcome.
     
     While I'm not going to be any help to you making predictions, I am going to share my picks and explain them, but first an observation. The regular season saw the rankings at the top change so often it's given us a tough bead on who is clearly a best overall team or even two teams. To me this indicates that we have a generally top-heavy field. Most of the teams seeded down to the #5 or #6 spots are strong. When I look at a Baylor at #5 I can easily see them bouncing any of the #1's on a good night. Good nights happen every day in the NCAA's. On the other hand, I do not see any true Cinderellas. Some lower seeds and mid-majors are going to advance a round or two, but beyond that the top 25 this year has been so solid that I can't see a Butler making the championship game like they did two straight years recently.

     I do have Wichita State making a bit of a run. Seniors Van Vleet and Baker are leading a veteran squad that is dangerous despite a disappointing regular season and a few bad losses. I don't know how deep they can be expected to go once they run into some of the bigger, more athletic power conference teams. Iowa State was one of my preseason favorites. They have a veteran squad with plenty of size in Niang, Nader and McKay, who have the talent to take over games. If they get help with good guard play, especially from Morris, they can be dangerous. I don't want to see another #1 or #2 win it all. I would much prefer someone unexpected to make a drama filled run, maybe a school that has never won a championship. Here's a list of middle seed teams I believe can win win this year; Oregon, Iowa State, Michigan, Utah, Seton Hall, USC, maybe Purdue. These teams have all won against top ranked competition, but all have bad losses and a tendency to disappear at times, have lacked solid consistency and a run to the title requires it. Aside from Arizona, I wouldn't mind seeing any of these schools emerge from the rubble of bracket obliteration to have a surprise champ.
     
     In my opinion a Cinderella has to be a #10 or lower seed school from a conference outside of the power six of SEC, Pac-12, ACC, Big East, Big Ten, and Big 12. This year's field doesn't appear to have any solid candidates. Wichita State might qualify but they've been so good in the last few years we kind of expect more from them. The sparkle is off the slipper. So who do we look to to play the spoiler? Hawaii and VCU could be intriguing. Stony Brook looks fun on paper but with no significant wins and a first round meeting with Kentucky have to be written off. Stephen F. Austin won a lot of games but lost badly against any good competition. The same can be said of S. Dakota State. Yale starts off with vulnerable teams in eleven loss Baylor and ten loss Duke. The Ivys can dream but they never get far. I just don't see a team seeded lower than #10 that inspires much confidence, other than the #11 seeds which are quality teams that would be higher but had to play their way into the field.
     
     So who fails this year? Kentucky lacks the strength they've enjoyed in the past. Will get beat. Duke is playing well but has lost too many games to make a six win run. Going down. West Virginia knows how to lose big games with the best of them. Toast. Oklahoma needs Buddy Hield to play great, one bad game and his running mates cannot bridge that gap against better teams. Most vulnerable #1 to me is Virginia. Five losses this year to un-ranked teams may be a bad omen.

     Your bracket will soon resemble no-mans land in the aftermath of World War one. It isn't that you don't know basketball, it's that with sixty eight teams of hungry, emotional, mistake prone young athletes anything can happen from tip to buzzer. Enjoy the ride.

 Oh, you want my prediction? As much as I hate to do this, I think a #1 seed in North Carolina might have the simplest, not necessarily the easiest but the most straightforward route match-up wise to the title. But I'm pulling for my favorite, Iowa State.

​     It's been a season full of madness so why not some more. No team in the top 25 has fewer than 4 losses. The #1 team has changed hands enough times that there is no clearly dominant school (sorry, Kansas). USC sweeping UCLA? Wooden's rolling in his grave. Duke dropping out of the rankings? Haters everywhere love that. We don't want to see this season end, but end it must. If the regular season in any indication this will be a wild postseason.  Will this be the year a #16 seed takes down a #1? If I could wish for that or Kanye West shutting his face.....tough call. It's only a matter of time. City College of New York won the whole thing once so we can dream.
      
     Now before I get carried away, big conference teams are still going to dominate brackets, but with 68 teams in the competition there will be surprises. Some conference tourneys are under way with most starting next week and selection Sunday on March 13th this year. There shouldn't be many cases of conference winners bumping many bubble teams with automatic bids, but we'll take a look at some potential scenarios. Firstly, here is a list of teams that, barring an SMU style catastrophe, will make the field;

   Wichita State
   Kentucky
   Texas A&M
   Arizona
   California
   Utah
   Oregon
   Indiana
   Iowa
   Purdue
   Michigan State
   Maryland
   Xavier
   Villanova
   Texas
   Baylor
   Iowa State
   West Virginia
   Oklahoma
   Kansas
   Notre Dame
   Duke
   North Carolina
   Virginia
   Miami
   Dayton
      
Conference tourneys with automatic bids yet to be determined;
   AAC  (would be SMU, but they are ineligible)  
   America East
   Atlantic Sun
   Big Sky
   Big South
   Big West
   Colonial Athletic
   Conference USA
   Horizon
   Ivy
   MAAC
   MAC
   Mid-Eastern
   Mountain West
   Northeast
   Ohio Valley
   Patriot
   Southern
   Southland
   Southwestern
   Summit
   Sunbelt
   West Coast
   WAC

     That brings us to forty nine teams leaving nineteen spots to be fought over. Let's start with one of the bigger story lines, Gonzaga. Saint Mary's has been coming hard after these guys' West Coast crown for a while now and seem to have snatched it away. My money is on the Zags to win the conference title and keep their NCAA Tourney streak of 17 seasons alive. I know Saint Mary's swept them but it's pretty tough to beat a determined team three straight times and I expect them to compete in the conference final. Gonzaga has three more losses than the Gaels, which skews the RPI greatly in SMC's favor, but those losses are less worse in my opinion. A one point loss for Gonzaga to Texas A&M compared to a four point loss to Cal for SMC, not to mention being swept by an average Pepperdine team while the Zags faced four Pac-12 opponents and a very strong SMU squad.

     Arkansas-Little Rock was having a stellar three loss season before dropping their last game to a poor Appalachian State team, an awful loss. Their SOS was never very strong so I never had them going far if they make the tourney field, but they should win the Sun Belt to get in.

     Valparaiso has put together a solid five loss season although their schedule is relatively weak. Wright State may have their number and challenge for the Horizon league title. The Akron Zips are interesting as the leader of the MAC conference in that they are second in the country in three point attempts and makes, while making 40%. They were handled easily by Villanova early in the season in their only major conference matchup.

     If you are looking for a Cinderella you could do worse than Monmouth. The Hawks may have already done enough to lock up at-large bid with wins over USC, UCLA, Notre Dame, and Georgetown, with a very close loss on the road to an outstanding Dayton team. How that team loses to Canisius, Army, Iona, and Manhattan I do not know. An at-large spot in the dance is not a given, especially the weight given to RPI by the committee, which would favor worse teams in major conferences due to the strength of the competition. I would be seriously disappointed to see a bubble team such as Florida at 17-13, near the bottom of the SEC rankings with a home win over West Virginia as their only significant victory get in ahead of a school like Monmouth with 6 total wins.
     
     Look for more Notes next week as we get closer to selection Sunday!

This is the first year, in the history of the NBA, there will be no Celtics, Lakers or Knicks in the postseason in the same season. There will be, however, a deep Clippers run, believe that!

Can everyone stop slapping hands with the free throw shooter on every single shot?! It's stupid and it's gotten so bad they'll do it on MISSES. Knock it off already.

Now to business. This hasn't been the craziest tournament in recent memory but it is living up to the name. Madness. How you say? Several things combine to bring an atmosphere of excitement you cannot find anywhere else. The NBA playoffs don't quite compare, there's a much greater element of predictability there. More talent certainly but the Wizards aren't taking down the Heat in 5 games as a #7 or #8 seed. In the tourney #14 and #15 seeds regularly knock off #3's and #2's (#14 Mercer stunned blue-blood Duke, although no #15's have gotten through this year), and it is only a matter of time before a #1 goes down to a #16. Parity is the wrong word to apply to the field but the sample size is so large it introduces an almost limitless variables. No team in this field is so talented and experienced to dominate. #10 seed Stanford beats #2 Kansas in the second round, a team that habitually starts many one-and-done freshman, limiting the team's experience. Regular season conference action is so competitive a national champ returning several starting players can lose #5 regular season games and get stuck with a #4 seed. These guys are young and hungry and play with such intensity and abandon just when a team looks unbeatable they stumble. At times they will squeak out wins against lower seeds, appear vulnerable, then go on to win big against a more storied program.  Traders love volatility and so do tourney fans like myself. I'm all about the Cinderellas. Wichita State or Creighton don't qualify but it's time to see another non-major conference school win it all!

Three schools each from Kansas and Oklahoma made the dance. They are 1-5 with Oklahoma kicked out of the Union and Wichita looking very good to go all the way. Both NM majors were in, and now they're out too.

Finally, chickens had a good year in basketball. Chickens? That's right, the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers made the field (that's some sort of rooster). And they didn't have to be lonely. They had the Delaware Blue Hens to comfort them after both were sent home in the first round. So much for mascots that strike fear in the hearts of opponents.

We're heading into the seventh week of pro football and based on a statistical model by a Wharton professor and a Las Vegas sports analyst we get to see the chances of your disappointment of a team, whoever that may be, making the playoffs and winning it all. More likely not unless it's the Broncos.





TEAM                PLAYOFFS     SB          
Broncos                 100%          28%
Seahawks               95%           15%
Packers                  77%            9%
Saints                     86%            8%
Patriots                   89%            6%
Colts                       86%            6%
Bengals                  78%            5%
Cowboys                 76%            5%
49ers                       67%            4%
Panthers                 49%            4%
Chiefs                      81%            2%
Lions                       52%            2%
Bears                      40%            2%
Dolphins                 36%            1%
Ravens                    31%            1%
Eagles                     27%            1%
Chargers                 21%            1%
Texans                   18%            1%
Titans                      17%            0%
Cardinals                16%            0%
Jets                         15%            0%
Browns                    14%            0%
Steelers                   9%             0%
Falcons                    6%             0%
Rams                       4%              0%
Redskins                  4%              0%
Bills                         3%              0%
Raiders                     2%             0%
Giants                      1%              0%
Vikings                     0%              0%
Bucs                         0%              0%
Jaguars                    0%              0%